Spot gold, silver, crude oil, foreign exchange short-term trading strategy on August 29
During the Asian session on Thursday (August 29), the US dollar index temporarily oscillated within a narrow range above the 98 mark. The weaker non-US currency provided support for the exchange rate. On the technical side, the short-term bullish signal has increased, but it is necessary to pay attention to the evening. The performance of the revised GDP in the second quarter; spot gold temporarily hovering around 1540, the rising momentum seems to have weakened, need to be concerned about the risk of shocking the top; in the crude oil market, oil prices have been reduced by EIA crude oil inventories and US crude oil production hit a record high Alternate action, the short-term trend variable is large.
★ August 29 financial market hotspots
1. German employment data and CPI data for August;
2. The economic sentiment index of the Eurozone in August;
3. US second quarter GDP revision;
4. The US second quarter PCE correction value;
5. The monthly rate of contracted sales index of existing homes in the United States in July;
6. The number of initial jobless claims in the US as of the week of August 2;
1. US dollar index:
Analysis: British Prime Minister Johnson will leave the parliament for more than a month before the Brexit, this plan has been approved by Queen Elizabeth, but angered the opposition leader, the pound weakened significantly, most commodity currencies also performed poorly, to the dollar Provide support; however, the market expects the US second quarter GDP will be slightly revised down, the data may be somewhat dragged before the release of the data; technically, the daily-level bullish signal has increased.
Daily level: shock; KDJ re-formed into a golden fork, the exchange rate initially recovered 98 integer mark, and initially broke the 10-day moving average 98.12 resistance, if you can hold the 98 mark, the market outlook is expected to further explore the resistance around 98.45 last week; then Further resistance is near the July 31 high of 98.69, and the resistance near the recent high is around 98.94.
However, the MACD dead fork is still there. If it falls below the 98 integer mark, it will weaken the short-term bullish signal; the August 27 low support will be around 97.85; the August 23 low support will be around 97.59, and the 100-day moving average support near 97.48. Last week's low support was near 97.26.
2 hours level: shocks rise; but the exchange rate regained the suppression of Bollinger's online track, KDJ re-formed into a golden fork, the MACD red column shrank, the short-term faced some adjustment risks, the initial support was near 98.10, the Bollinger line mid-rail support at 98.06 If you drop the position nearby, you may further test the support near the lower line of the Bollinger line at 97.85.
If the exchange rate can hold the support near the 98.06 middle line of the Bollinger Band, the exchange rate of the market will still have a chance to oscillate.
Resistance: 98.27; 98.45; 98.69; 98.94; 99.29;
Support: 98.10; 98.00; 97.85; 97.59; 97.47;
Conclusion: The short-term trend is large, pay attention to the 98.00-98.27 regional breakthrough situation; before the 98 mark, it is biased to attack.
2. Spot gold:
Analysis: The US dollar index is relatively firm, making gold bullish, and US stocks rose sharply overnight, also suppressing demand for safe haven; however, the market expects US second quarter GDP may be slightly revised down, the market is not optimistic about the US housing market data, the UK is hard to take off The risk of Europe remains, and it is expected to provide some support for the gold price.
Daily line level: unilateral rise; MACD gold fork, KDJ gold fork, average line long position, if the top breaks the resistance around 1555.08, it is expected to open a new upside, the initial target can be seen in the 1600-1617 area, the former is the integer mark, The latter is the high resistance on March 21, 2013. In the short-term, the resistance at the low point on March 8, 2013 is around 1561.62; the resistance at the high point on April 11, 2013 is around 1568.50.
However, the K-line shows that the upside momentum has weakened, the MACD and KDJ's Jinchao signals are also weaker, and the MACD is a serious divergence. It is still necessary to guard against the risk of gold price volatility, or the possibility of high volatility; the current 5-day moving average Support is near 1535.52. This week's low support is near 1524.97. The 10-day moving average is near 1514.43. If it falls below this position, it will increase the short-term bearish signal; further strong support is near the 20-day moving average 1506.18.
2 hours level: shock; Bollinger Middle Track provides support for gold price, KDJ re-forms into gold fork, short-term attention to the resistance around Bollinger's online rail 1547.56, if the resistance is broken, increase short-term bullish signal; further resistance in the near future High point around 1555.08.
However, the MACD dead-fork signal continues. If it falls below the support of the Bollinger Band's mid-rail 1537.10, it may further test the support near the Bollinger Band's lower rail 1526.62. There is also some support near the last trading day low of 1531.70.
Resistance: 1546.84; 1550.00; 1555.17; 1561.62; 1568.50;
Support: 1535.36; 1531.70; 1524.97; 1519.43; 1512.97;
Short-term operational recommendations: conservatives wait and see; radicals short rallies, diligent and cautiously short.
Special reminder 1: Investors need to recognize that for ordinary investors, most of the time should be based on wait and see, patiently waiting for the best opportunity to shoot, avoid frequent trading is recognized as one of the winning magic. Don't try to capture all the volatility, and don't expect to judge every market correctly.
Special reminder 2: Judging the market is just a part of the transaction. Investors also need to have awe of the market, keep in mind the trading discipline, and strictly control the position, reduce greed, overcome fear, and try to maintain a normal heart. make a deal. Because the strategy contains too many price points, please also bear with me with some editorial errors and deficiencies.