The Golden Bear begins to return? Is it a reversal or a fall? This week nonfarm will give answers.
Spot gold opened up slightly on Monday (September 2nd), but it is now showing a $10 decline from its intraday high point, now up to $1525.07, or 0.3%.
Last week, because of the poor European economic data and the US dollar buying at the end of the month, the market ignored Trump's bombardment of the Federal Reserve, and the US dollar broke its highs over the past two years. Gold once fell below the $1520 mark.
However, due to the tension of international trade, gold opened up this week. But considering that the international trade negotiations are still in progress, the worry is not sustainable. Gold is now taking a big jump. In the short term, the gold market will remain volatile and the market will pay more attention to the progress of the international trade situation.
Due to the US labor day closed, the market will focus on European economic data, which will have an indirect effect on the euro and US dollar trend, and then affect gold. Meanwhile, the market needs to focus on non farm employment and payroll data this Friday to find clues about inflation and employment.
It is worth mentioning that the gold market survey released by Jin Tuo gold weekly shows that gold bears are returning, which may put some pressure on gold in the short term.
Tension in international trade pushed gold forward, but consultations continued to make the market look better, and gold prices rose more or less.
On Monday (September 2nd), because of the pick-up in international trade anxiety, gold jumped to a higher level and was once close to the $1535 line. However, gold has lost most of its gains, and has fallen more than 10 US dollars from the high point of the day. Considering that international trade is still in active consultation, the market is cautious about obtaining further information.
Asian stock markets have seen mixed ups and downs in Asian equity markets. Hongkong's Hang Seng Index dropped 0.4% on Monday, and Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities opened slightly higher in early trading. The Shanghai composite index opened up 0.02% on Monday. The Shenzhen stock index rose 0.29% on Monday, suggesting that the market is too busy to wait for further signals.
The market is waiting for information on international trade. Meanwhile, the gold market is still concerned about the impact of global economic growth and the relaxed stance of the global central bank.
Jeffrey Halley warned that, considering that gold has already seen such a big increase, whenever there is a mild signal in the international trade situation, it will be reflected clearly in the gold trend.
Financial APP shows that the US stock market has also seen major changes in recent years under the influence of the international trade situation. In the last week of August, the S & P 500 index recorded the biggest weekly gain since June, which limits the gold price increase. Foreign exchange trading agent
But in August, the US stock market recorded the largest monthly decline since May, which is the first monthly decline in US stocks since May. Therefore, the market will continue to pay attention to the progress of the international trade situation. If the international trade situation improves, it may make the hedge funds flow further, otherwise, it may strengthen the market's risk aversion buying needs.
Pay close attention to non-agricultural data to be released on Friday
Finance and economics APP hints that from the Fed's recent statements, the Fed remains committed to maintaining the job market and increasing inflation.
Last Friday, the US consumer spending rose strongly in July, as families bought a range of goods and services. Specific data show that consumer spending increased by 0.6% in July, higher than the market forecast growth of 0.5% and the growth rate in June was 0.3%.
Although this may further ease the financial market's worries about the recession, the strong pace of consumption is unlikely to continue under the condition that the income growth is not bad. Therefore, the market will pay attention to the average annual hourly wage rate of the United States on Friday. The current market forecast is 3%, lower than the previous value of 3.2%, highlighting the lack of momentum for the current US wage growth. If the data is not as expected, it will further strengthen the concerns of the US slowdown and raise the expectations of the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in August.
Especially in the current shortage of inflation pressure in the United States, it may exacerbate the market's concerns. Last Friday, July, the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index increased by 0.2% over the previous month, representing an increase of 1.6% over the same period last year. The core PCE price index is the Federal Reserve's favorite measure of inflation, which has been below the Fed's target of 2% this year.
In addition to inflation and payroll data, the market will also focus on non-agricultural employment. The strong job market has also been one of the important bases for the Federal Reserve to suspend interest rates.
It is worth noting that the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Powell, will deliver a speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy at 0:30 a.m. on Saturday, Beijing time, a few hours after the release of non-agricultural data. This is the last speech before the September policy session. Under the tension of international trade, investors can understand Powell's latest views on the current economic situation. The US slowdown in economic growth over the second quarter exceeded expectations. The international trade friction has brought heavy pressure on manufacturing and business investment. If the economic data is weakening, the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September.
The relatively strong US economy still supports the US dollar and limits the increase in gold prices.
Last Friday (August 30th), despite August, University of Michigan's consumer confidence index hit its largest monthly decline in the past 7 years. At the same time, Trump once again criticized the dollar for being too strong. Trump said that the euro zone had a great advantage, but the Fed was indifferent. The dollar was at its strongest record, which sounds great, but it is not good for the manufacturer.
Despite this short period of pressure on the dollar, gold once recovered $1530 mark. However, a broad dollar demand at the end of the month and weak economic data in the euro area, the market has digested the impact of bad factors, and the US dollar index has climbed sharply, hitting a new high to 99.02 since May 2017. This affected gold once fell below the US $1520 mark.
The US dollar was bought at the end of the month, but the euro was dragged down by the seemingly inactive economic data in the euro area, which caused some radical discussions about the ECB in the coming months.
APP suggests that the US economy is still relatively strong compared with developed countries such as Europe, especially in Germany and Holland, where the yield of treasury bonds has been completely negative, which still makes some hedge funds inflow into the US dollar, which may squeeze gold parts in a short time.
Because the US is closed for labor day, the market will focus on European economic data. Finance and economics APP hints that last week's inflation rate slowed down in August and the unemployment rate rose. This shows that Europe's largest economy is losing momentum and strengthened the anticipation of the European Central Bank's new stimulus plan next month. If European manufacturing data remain underperforming within days, it may continue to strengthen the market's easing expectations for the ECB and further boost the US dollar, which may partially limit gold's gains.
Golden Tuo gold market survey: Golden Bear returns
The golden tut gold market survey released weekly shows that as the summer draws to a close, gold bears are returning to the market, especially the first time in five weeks.
Among the 15 Wall Street respondents, 6 were empty and more than 40%, and 3 were neutral.
At the same time, 762 of the 1203 general investors who participated in the survey, that is, 63%, continued to see more gold prices, 258 were 21% down gold prices, and the remaining 183, or 15%, held a neutral stance.
In this regard, as gold prices remain above the 10 day moving average, he is still optimistic about gold in the short term. Despite the success of the stock market in the past week, gold has been doing well.
He said: "the stock market remains quite resilient and may get some momentum from gold, but I don't think you can overlook future prospects." "Looking ahead, there are still many uncertainties."
"The international economic situation seems to be improving, so I am not surprised by the market profit taking. But even if prices do fall, the long-term upward trend is still intact.
He said he would not pursue gold profits at the current price level. But he said he would consider putting down the cloth. He added that $1480 would be the critical level of observation, and he would observe whether the price would introduce new gold purchases.
Added that despite the noise in the market, the further rise of the stock market will also cause resistance to gold in the short term. But taking into account the global loose stance, gold still has room for further improvement.
International holiday notice: the New York stock exchange closed for a day on Labor Day in the United States and Canada. CME group's precious metals, U.S. crude oil and foreign exchange contracts advanced ahead of schedule at 01:00 a.m. Beijing time on September 3rd, and ICE's Brent crude oil contract closed early on September 3rd at 01:30 hours in Beijing.
(1) the annual retail sales in Switzerland in July at an annual rate of.
2. France's August Markit manufacturing PMI value at 15:50.
3. Germany's Markit manufacturing PMI end value at 15:55 August.
(4) euro August Markit manufacturing PMI end value at 16:00.
16:30 British manufacturing PMI Markit August