Gold price high callback, market expectations Powell speech implied interest rate cuts, urged gold to rise again
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech at University of Zurich in Beijing on Saturday, September 7th. The market expects Powell to give the final clue before the Federal Reserve's September monetary policy conference, of. Last week, the risk aversion cooled down gold prices for three days. Investors expected Powell's speech to boost gold prices this week.
Vatfx said that the United States has responded positively to Asia's efforts to retaliate against the United States. Although the price of gold has been reversed, it is still on the key support position.
Vatfx said that the price of gold could be lowered a bit, so that the motive for hedging or reducing risks might be weakened. But if the data deteriorate, the Fed will become more temperate, and the stock market volatility will pick up, and the gold price will be pushed up.
Everyone is watching Powell.
Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, made a speech. This is probably the last statement before the Fed made its interest rate decision in September 18th.Foreign exchange dealer
American economist Andrew Hunt (Andrew Hunter) said that Powell will deliver a final hint later this week, suggesting that they plan to cut interest rates again in September. Powell's speech in Jackson Holzer last week clearly shows that the Federal Reserve plans to cut interest rates again in September because of the escalating trade warming and the weakness of other parts of the world.
The market now expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at 95.8% meetings in September, with a 4.2% chance of not cutting interest rates at all. Capital Economics currently expects to cut interest rates in September and December, and expects interest rates to remain unchanged next year. Before Powell's speech on Friday, the United States will release the most important data - the August employment report.
Melek said that the US employment data released on Friday is very important, and everyone is concerned about the data market. Any price below this level will push up the price of gold.
The US economy has not fallen off the cliff.
Overall, the economic data released by the United States last week were not too disappointing, suggesting that the economic outlook may not be as bleak as expected by the market.
In general, the data have been quite reliable, indicating that even if economic growth has slowed down in the past few quarters, it is certainly not falling off the cliff.The second quarter GDP data show that although the overall GDP growth is slightly down, consumption growth is estimated to be close to 5%, which is very powerful.
Added that the data released by the US in July also showed that the economy remained strong in the third quarter. Consumption growth is expected to be around 3.5%-4% in the third quarter, and is still quite strong. It looks like the GDP growth in the third quarter will be close to 2% again. Although investment growth has been slowing down, it is in fact expected that the growth of corporate profits has been slowing down. So far, consumers do not seem to care. If the next tariff starts to bring more upward pressure on consumer prices, this is expected to change. So far, there is not much evidence to show this.
Don't miss the link with the US dollar.
Baruch points out that another interesting driving force for sustainable development in the gold market is its ability to ignore the appreciation of the dollar. One possible explanation for the rebound in gold prices is fundamental contradictions, such as the steady rise of the US dollar in the reverse of the yield curve. The Treasury is in good condition. This is the 2 and 10 year yield reversal. These are contradictory factors. They offset each other, so that gold can stand firm and make good deals.
Baruch added that if the US dollar loses kinetic energy, gold prices may break through the new high. Gold is also pushed by silver, and silver prices are rising due to more technological breakthroughs.
Finance and economics APP reminded that although the recent market risk aversion dropped sharply, the gold price was high callback, but this did not hinder investors' enthusiasm for gold holdings. Data showed that international gold, silver futures and options held more positions. At present, the global economic downturn and the expectation of global central bank monetary easing are still the main logic to support the performance of gold and silver, but the short-term disturbance factors can not be ignored. In addition to this week's Powell speech and US employment data, investors should also pay attention to Trump twitter, the US ISM manufacturing report, brown leather book and durable goods report.
Market analysis software shows that as of 10:00 Beijing time at 10:00 on September 2nd, spot gold is now reported to be $1524.96 / ounce.